Despite a less than stellar performance in the UEFA Euro 2024 group stage, the England national football team finds themselves in a surprisingly advantageous position according to the current UEFA Euro standings. While Gareth Southgate and his squad faced criticism and even projectiles after their draw against Slovenia in Cologne, leading UK bookmakers were simultaneously shortening England’s odds to win the tournament. This wasn’t due to newfound optimism in their play, but rather the unfolding structure of the knockout bracket and England’s favorable placement within it.
The Euro 2024 knockout stage has taken an unexpected shape, creating a stark contrast between the halves of the bracket. Unlike a free draw seen in club competitions, the pre-determined paths have resulted in a significant imbalance. Pre-tournament favorites like France, despite underperforming in their group, now find themselves clustered with footballing powerhouses Spain, Germany, and Portugal in the top half of the bracket. Belgium, after finishing second in their group, also landed in this challenging section. This concentration of top-tier teams means a much tougher road to the final for these nations.
Conversely, the bottom half of the bracket, where England resides, appears considerably less daunting based on team performances so far in the tournament. Alongside England are Switzerland and Italy, both of whom, like England, only managed a single win during the group stage. Slovakia, another team with a less than dominant group stage performance, further populates this side of the draw. This means that a team with only one group stage victory is guaranteed to reach the semi-finals from this section, facing potentially weaker opponents like Austria, Belgium, or the Netherlands. The stark contrast is evident when considering the other semi-final potential matchups, which could feature clashes between Spain or Germany against Portugal or France.
Following the uninspiring 0-0 draw against Slovenia, Southgate was questioned about England’s seemingly fortunate bracket position. While acknowledging the potential advantage, he cautioned against complacency, stating, “We shouldn’t be seduced by which half of the draw. We have to take a step at a time. Tonight was an improvement. We’ve got to improve to win the next round.” He further recognized the strength of the teams on the other side of the bracket when it was pointed out that England had avoided Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal, but maintained that their side still presented formidable opponents.
However, the reality is that the draw is significantly skewed in England’s favor, echoing situations seen in past major tournaments. Similar to the 2018 World Cup, where the strongest teams were heavily concentrated on one side of the bracket, Euro 2024 presents a clear path of lesser resistance for England. In 2018, Belgium’s ‘golden generation’ arguably missed their best chance at glory by winning their group, leading them to a tougher path and eventual semi-final defeat to France. England, finishing second in their group then, benefited from a gentler route to the semi-finals.
Euro 2016 also showcased this imbalance. Italy, despite a strong group stage, were placed in the tougher side of the draw, eventually losing to Germany in the quarter-finals. Meanwhile, Portugal, who barely qualified from their group, navigated a much easier path to the final, facing teams like Croatia, Poland, and Wales.
Unlike some competitions with free draws like the FA Cup, or those that rank teams based on regular-season records to balance knockout stages like the NFL or NBA, international football tournaments operate with pre-determined knockout brackets. While group stage draws are seeded, the allocation to groups is random, inherently leading to potential imbalances in the knockout stages. This pre-determined structure in tournaments like the World Cup and European Championship is favored for logistical reasons, aiding in planning, travel, and ensuring adequate rest for teams in a condensed tournament timeframe.
Despite the structured approach, inconsistencies remain, such as varying rest periods for teams between matches. However, the inherent variance of knockout football means that predictions are always subject to upsets. Nevertheless, the current UEFA Euro standings and bracket layout strongly suggest that a team that underperformed in the group stage has a very real opportunity to reach the semi-final or even the final of Euro 2024. England, along with Switzerland and Italy, has been given a ‘soft landing’ and for one of these nations, it could very well be the springboard to unexpected success.
