Amidst a shower of hurled objects and jeers directed at Gareth Southgate and his England squad in Cologne, something peculiar occurred on Tuesday: leading UK bookmakers began to drastically shorten England’s odds of clinching Euro 2024. This wasn’t fueled by a sudden surge of optimism or a wave of patriotic bets after their uninspiring performance. The shift in odds, also observed for Italy, Austria, and Switzerland, and a corresponding drift for France, Spain, Germany, and Portugal, was rooted in the evolving structure of the tournament itself.
If the Euro 2024 knockout stage operated as a free draw, akin to the Champions League, powerhouses like Spain, Germany, Portugal, and even pre-tournament favorites France, despite their lackluster group stage, would be the teams to watch. However, the predetermined knockout bracket has taken an unexpected turn. France’s inability to secure their group’s top spot has placed them alongside Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Denmark in the upper half of the bracket. Belgium, after finishing as runner-up in Group E, also finds themselves in this challenging section.
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Euro 2024 Knockout Bracket: Analyzing England’s Path to the Final](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5589435/2024/06/25/england-route-euro-2024-final-fixtures/)
Conversely, the lower section of the bracket appears significantly less daunting. Switzerland is set to face Italy in Berlin, while England, Euro 2021 finalists, will also compete in this section. However, it’s crucial to note that Switzerland, Italy, and England each only managed a single victory during the group stage. Adding Slovakia, another team in this bracket who finished third in Group E, the combined wins from these four teams amount to a mere four out of a possible twelve.
This starkly illustrates that a team with just one group stage win is guaranteed a spot in the semi-finals from the bottom half of the draw. Here, the most formidable opponent they might encounter in the semi-final would likely be Austria, Belgium, or the Netherlands. In stark contrast, the other semi-final is projected to feature a clash between giants like Spain or Germany against Portugal or France.
Following England’s uninspiring 0-0 draw with Slovenia, Southgate was questioned about whether England had benefited from the bracket’s configuration. “We shouldn’t be seduced by which half of the draw,” he cautioned. “We have to take a step at a time. Tonight was an improvement. We’ve got to improve to win the next round.” Despite his measured response, the reality of the situation is clear: England has indeed landed on the favorable side of the Euro 2024 bracket.
In a subsequent press conference, the bracket’s implications were further clarified to Southgate – England was positioned away from Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal. While acknowledging respect for these footballing powerhouses, Southgate maintained, “equally, there are some very good teams on our side of the draw.”
However, the disparity is undeniable. Similar to the 2018 World Cup, fortune has favored England and the other nations situated on this side of the bracket, notably Austria. Austria’s success in topping their group, ahead of both France and the Netherlands, arguably demonstrates their own merit in shaping their favorable path.
The 2018 World Cup vividly illustrates this bracket imbalance. Five of the top six ranked teams in the knockout stage – Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, and France – were clustered on one side of the draw. The opposing side comprised Spain (who had only secured one group stage win), Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia, and England.
That World Cup was widely considered Belgium’s golden opportunity, with their celebrated generation of players at their peak. However, their reward for winning Group G was navigating the tougher side of the bracket, culminating in a semi-final defeat against France after overcoming Japan and Brazil. England, finishing as runners-up to Belgium, reaped the benefit of the gentler bracket side, progressing past Colombia and Sweden before succumbing to Croatia in their semi-final.
Euro 2016 presented a comparable scenario. Italy, under Antonio Conte, excelled in the group stage, yet their reward for topping Group E was placement in the more challenging bracket section. They defeated Spain 2-0 but were then eliminated by Germany in a quarter-final penalty shootout, with Germany subsequently losing to host nation France in the semi-final. Conversely, Portugal, who had narrowly qualified as a third-placed team in Group F after draws against Iceland, Austria, and Hungary, remarkably reached the final. Their path involved victories over Croatia in the round of 16, Poland in the quarter-final, and Wales in the semi-final.
While some competitions, such as the FA Cup, employ a free draw system, others like the NFL and NBA rank teams based on regular-season performance, aiming to position the strongest teams from each conference on opposite sides of the playoff bracket.
International football tournaments, including the World Cup, European Championship, Copa America, Africa Cup of Nations, and Asian Cup, operate differently. Their structure is predetermined from the initial draw, dictating that the winner of Group A will face the runner-up of Group B, and so forth.
The group stage draw is seeded, but the allocation of teams to groups involves a random draw, inherently creating the possibility of a lopsided knockout bracket. Given the condensed nature of these tournaments, typically spanning four to five weeks in a host nation, a predetermined structure is deemed advantageous for logistical planning, travel arrangements, and ensuring adequate rest periods between matches for each team.
However, inconsistencies persist. Austria will enjoy a seven-day rest period between their final group match and their round of 16 game, while Spain’s yet-to-be-determined round of 16 opponent will have a mere four days of rest.
The inherent unpredictability of knockout football is undeniable. Yet, with a degree of confidence, it can be projected that a team that underperformed in the Euro 2024 group stage has a realistic pathway to the semi-finals, or even the final. Following a challenging group phase, England, Switzerland, Italy, and others have been presented with a softer landing in the knockout rounds. For one of these nations, this fortunate bracket placement might just serve as the springboard to unexpected success.
