As Gareth Southgate and his England squad faced a barrage of boos and thrown objects in Cologne, something peculiar happened in the world of UK bookmakers. Odds for England to clinch Euro 2024 victory were suddenly slashed. This wasn’t due to a wave of optimism after their uninspiring performance; rather, it was the unfolding Euro 2024 bracket that shifted the landscape. Alongside England, nations like Italy, Austria, and Switzerland saw their odds shorten, while pre-tournament favorites such as France, Spain, Germany, and Portugal experienced a drift in theirs. The current standings and the resulting knockout draw have created a tournament of two halves.
Had the Euro 2024 knockout stage been a free draw, mirroring the format of European club competitions, the conversation would likely revolve around Spain, Germany, Portugal, and perhaps even France, despite their shaky group stage form. These teams have showcased dominance and are, on paper, the powerhouses of the tournament. However, the predetermined nature of the knockout bracket has thrown a curveball. France’s inability to secure the top spot in their group has inadvertently stacked the top half of the bracket with titans: Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Denmark now find themselves in a congested path to the final. Belgium, after finishing as runners-up in Group E, also joins this formidable upper echelon.
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Euro 2024 Knockout Bracket Analysis: Examining England’s Route to the Final](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5589435/2024/06/25/england-route-euro-2024-final-fixtures/)
Conversely, the bottom quarter of the bracket paints a different picture. It features Switzerland versus Italy in Berlin, and England, the Euro 2020 finalists, also positioned in this section. While these are established footballing nations, their group stage performances were far from dominant. Switzerland, Italy, and England each managed only a single victory in their respective groups. Adding Slovakia, another third-placed team from Group E, to this mix reveals a stark reality: the bottom quarter of the draw is comprised of teams with a combined four wins out of a possible twelve in the group stage.
This sets up a compelling scenario. A team with only one group stage win is guaranteed a spot in the Euro 2024 semi-finals from this bottom quarter. Potentially awaiting them in the semi-final are Austria, Belgium, or the Netherlands – hardly pushovers, but arguably less daunting than the gauntlet awaiting teams in the other half. The other semi-final, in stark contrast, could very well pit Spain or Germany against Portugal or France. The Euro 2024 Current Standings have, therefore, created a lopsided knockout stage, significantly impacting the potential paths to the final.
Following England’s lackluster 0-0 draw against Slovenia, Southgate was directly questioned about the perceived luck of the draw. “We shouldn’t be seduced by which half of the draw,” he cautioned. “We have to take a step at a time. Tonight was an improvement. We’ve got to improve to win the next round.” However, the reality remains that England and the other teams in the lower bracket have indeed landed a comparatively softer path based on the current Euro 2024 standings.
It was explicitly pointed out to Southgate in the post-match press conference that England found themselves on the opposite side of the bracket from Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal. While acknowledging respect for these footballing giants, Southgate maintained, “We have huge respect for all of the teams you’ve mentioned but equally, there are some very good teams on our side of the draw.”
While Southgate understandably downplays the bracket’s influence, the disparity is undeniable. Much like the 2018 World Cup, fortune seems to favor England and the other nations populating their side of the Euro 2024 bracket. Austria, in particular, having topped a group containing France and the Netherlands, can justifiably argue they have earned their advantageous position through merit, but the overall structure undeniably offers a less congested route to the final for this half of the draw.
The 2018 World Cup serves as a stark reminder of how bracket imbalance can play out. Five of the top six ranked teams in the knockout stage – Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, and France – were clustered on one side. The other side comprised Spain (who themselves had a shaky group stage), Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia, and England. Belgium’s ‘golden generation’ arguably missed their prime opportunity in that tournament, succumbing to France in the semi-finals after navigating a brutal path. England, in contrast, capitalized on their gentler draw to reach the semi-finals, ultimately losing to Croatia.
Euro 2016 presented a similar narrative. Italy, under Antonio Conte, impressed in the group stage, only to be placed on the tougher side of the knockout bracket. They defeated Spain but fell to Germany in the quarter-finals, who then lost to hosts France in the semi-final. Meanwhile, Portugal, who had barely scraped through the group stage with three draws, navigated a significantly easier path to the final, defeating Croatia, Poland, and Wales.
Unlike competitions like the FA Cup with its free draw, or leagues like the NFL or NBA that rank teams to ensure balanced playoffs, major international football tournaments like the Euros and World Cup utilize a predetermined knockout structure. While the group stage draw is seeded, random allocation to groups can lead to these bracket imbalances. This structure prioritizes logistical planning, travel, and rest for teams within a condensed tournament timeframe.
However, inconsistencies remain. Austria will enjoy a seven-day rest before their round of 16 match, while Spain’s opponents will have only four days. The inherent variance of knockout football means anything can happen, but the Euro 2024 current standings and resulting bracket strongly suggest a team with a less-than-stellar group stage could realistically reach the semi-final or even the final. England, Switzerland, Italy, and others have been handed a “soft landing.” For one of them, this could be the springboard to unexpected Euro 2024 glory.
