As Gareth Southgate and his England squad faced a barrage of boos and projectiles in Cologne, something peculiar happened in betting markets across the UK. Leading bookmakers began to shorten England’s odds to win Euro 2024. This wasn’t due to newfound optimism in the Three Lions after a lackluster group stage performance. Instead, it was the unfolding shape of the tournament bracket that prompted the shift.
The odds for England, along with Italy, Austria, and Switzerland, saw a decrease. Simultaneously, the odds for pre-tournament favorites like France, Spain, Germany, and Portugal drifted outwards. The reason? The Euro 2024 knockout bracket has, arguably, become significantly unbalanced.
In a hypothetical free draw post-group stage, mirroring the format of European club competitions, teams like Spain, Germany, Portugal, and even a struggling France would be considered frontrunners. However, Euro 2024’s predetermined knockout bracket, decided well before the first ball was kicked, now appears heavily skewed.
France’s inability to secure the top spot in their group has exacerbated this imbalance. Les Bleus now find themselves crammed into the top half of the bracket alongside Spain, Germany, Portugal, Denmark, and Belgium, who finished second in Group E. This concentration of footballing powerhouses in one half paints a starkly different picture compared to the other side of the draw.
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Euro 2024 Knockout Bracket: Analyzing England’s Path to the Final](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5589435/2024/06/25/england-route-euro-2024-final-fixtures/)
The bottom half of the bracket, in contrast, appears considerably less daunting on paper. It features Switzerland facing Italy and England. However, examining their group stage performances reveals a less-than-dominant picture. Switzerland, Italy, and England each managed only a single win in their respective groups. Adding Slovakia, another team in this section who finished third in Group E, brings the collective win tally to a mere four victories out of a possible twelve.
This stark reality means that a team with just one group stage win is guaranteed a path to the semi-finals from the bottom half of the Euro 2024 bracket. The potential semi-final opponent from this section would likely be Austria, Belgium, or the Netherlands – respectable teams, but arguably not on the same level as the giants lurking in the top half. Conversely, the other semi-final is projected to be a clash between titans, potentially pitting Spain or Germany against Portugal or France.
Following England’s uninspiring 0-0 draw against Slovenia, Southgate was questioned about whether England had benefited from a fortunate bracket draw. He cautiously responded, “We shouldn’t be seduced by which half of the draw. We have to take a step at a time. Tonight was an improvement. We’ve got to improve to win the next round.”
Later, in his press conference, the manager acknowledged the imbalance, stating, “We have huge respect for all of the teams you’ve mentioned [Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal] but equally, there are some very good teams on our side of the draw.”
However, the reality is that the bracket is not equally balanced. Similar to the 2018 World Cup, fortune seems to have favored England and other teams positioned in the bottom half. Austria, having topped their group ahead of France and the Netherlands, can justifiably claim to have earned their favorable position.
The 2018 World Cup draw offered a striking parallel. Five of the top six ranked teams in the knockout stage (Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, and France) were clustered on one side, while the other half consisted of Spain, Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia, and England.
That World Cup was widely considered Belgium’s golden opportunity, with their celebrated generation of players at their peak. However, winning their group proved to be a double-edged sword. After overcoming Japan and Brazil, they succumbed to France in the semi-finals. England, in contrast, finishing second to Belgium, enjoyed a gentler path, defeating Colombia and Sweden before losing to Croatia in their semi-final.
Euro 2016 presented a similar narrative of bracket disparity. Italy, impressive in the group stage, were rewarded for winning Group E by being placed in the tougher side of the draw. They defeated Spain but then lost to Germany in the quarter-finals. Germany subsequently lost to hosts France in the semi-final. Meanwhile, Portugal, who narrowly qualified from Group F after draws against Iceland, Austria, and Hungary, navigated a less challenging route to the final, overcoming Croatia, Poland, and Wales.
While some competitions, like the FA Cup, utilize a free draw system, others, such as the NFL or NBA, rank teams based on regular-season performance to ensure a more balanced playoff bracket.
International football tournaments, including the Euros, World Cup, Copa America, Africa Cup of Nations, and Asian Cup, operate differently. Their pre-determined structure dictates that the winner of Group A plays the runner-up of Group B, and so on.
Although the group stage draw is seeded, the allocation of teams to groups is random, inherently creating the possibility of a lopsided knockout bracket. This pre-determined structure is favored in condensed international tournaments for logistical reasons, aiding planning, travel, and ensuring adequate rest for teams between matches.
Yet, inconsistencies remain. Austria enjoyed a seven-day rest period between their final group game and their round of 16 match, while Spain’s yet-to-be-determined opponent will have had only four days of rest.
Knockout football is inherently unpredictable. However, the Euro 2024 bracket suggests that a team that underperformed in the group stage could realistically reach the semi-finals, or even the final. England, Switzerland, and Italy, among others, have been handed a potentially easier route. For one of these nations, this favorable path might just be the springboard to unexpected success.
(Top photo: Andreas Gora/Picture Alliance via Getty Images))
