The euro experienced a dip against the US dollar, briefly touching its lowest point since February 12th, reaching $1.04. This fluctuation reflects investor reactions to recent economic data releases and anxieties surrounding impending trade tariffs, all in anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting next week.
Market sentiment was notably influenced by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, effective Tuesday. Adding to the trade tensions, a further 10% duty on Chinese imports was also declared. Furthermore, President Trump outlined plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from the European Union, encompassing cars and a range of other goods. These trade policy announcements injected volatility into the currency markets as investors assessed the potential global economic impact.
On the economic data front, Germany’s inflation rate remained steady at 2.3% in February. However, the core inflation rate showed signs of easing, dropping to a three-year low of 2.6%. In France, inflation figures surprised on the downside, falling more than expected to a four-year low of 0.8%. Conversely, inflation rates in Italy and Spain showed an upward trend, accelerating to 1.7% and 3% respectively, aligning with market forecasts. These mixed inflation signals across major Eurozone economies contribute to the complex backdrop for the ECB’s upcoming decision.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to implement a fifth consecutive interest rate cut at its Thursday meeting. Market analysts anticipate that the ECB will also signal the likelihood of further reductions as the Eurozone grapples with persistent concerns over slowing inflation and sluggish economic growth. This anticipated dovish stance from the ECB is a key factor weighing on the euro’s strength against the dollar.
The EURUSD exchange rate experienced a decrease of 0.0021 or 0.20%, settling at 1.0378 on Friday, February 28th, compared to 1.0398 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Euro US Dollar exchange rate has seen significant fluctuations. The all-time high reached 1.87 in July 1973, predating the euro’s official introduction as a currency on January 1, 1999. Historical data before 1999 is modeled as a synthetic representation based on a weighted average of the legacy currencies of Eurozone member states. The latest data for the Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate was updated on March 1, 2025.
EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast
Current economic models and analyst expectations from Trading Economics suggest a potential further weakening of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Forecasts indicate a level of 1.03 by the end of the current quarter and a further decline to 1.01 within a 12-month timeframe. These projections reflect ongoing concerns about the Eurozone’s economic outlook relative to the United States.
| Crosses | Price | Day | Year | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0378 | -0.0021 | -0.20% | -3.94% |
| EURGBP | 0.8253 | 0.0001 | 0.01% | -3.55% |
| EURAUD | 1.6717 | 0.0043 | 0.25% | 0.54% |
| EURNZD | 1.8533 | 0.0077 | 0.42% | 4.42% |
| EURJPY | 156.2815 | 0.5015 | 0.32% | -3.56% |
| EURCNY | 7.5694 | -0.0216 | -0.28% | -2.54% |
| EURCHF | 0.9372 | 0.0016 | 0.17% | -1.93% |
| EURCAD | 1.5001 | -0.0010 | -0.06% | 2.26% |
| EURMXN | 21.3261 | 0.0242 | 0.11% | 15.85% |
| EURINR | 90.6642 | -0.1452 | -0.16% | 1.24% |
| EURBRL | 6.1040 | 0.0299 | 0.49% | 13.40% |
| EURKRW | 1,516.9672 | 8.3630 | 0.55% | 4.94% |
| EURIDR | 17,159.5302 | -60.5976 | -0.35% | 1.11% |
| EURPLN | 4.1911 | 0.0271 | 0.65% | -2.78% |
| EURSEK | 11.2122 | 0.0310 | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| EURCZK | 25.0660 | 0.0720 | 0.29% | -1.00% |
| EURHUF | 406.1320 | 5.4815 | 1.37% | 3.68% |
| EURNOK | 11.6815 | -0.0107 | -0.09% | 1.89% |
| EURZAR | 19.3963 | 0.1992 | 1.04% | -6.47% |
| Related | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area Inflation Rate | 2.50 | 2.40 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| United States Inflation Rate | 3.00 | 2.90 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| Euro Area Interest Rate | 2.90 | 2.90 | percent | Feb 2025 |
| United States Fed Funds Interest Rate | 4.50 | 4.50 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| United States Non Farm Payrolls | 143.00 | 307.00 | Thousand | Jan 2025 |
| United States Unemployment Rate | 4.00 | 4.10 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| Euro Area Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.20 | percent | Dec 2024 |
Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD
The EURUSD spot exchange rate represents the current value of the euro in terms of the US dollar for immediate exchange. While the spot rate is for same-day transactions, the EURUSD forward rate is quoted today but is for transactions scheduled for a specific date in the future.
| Actual | Previous | Highest | Lowest | Dates | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.87 | 0.64 | 1957 – 2025 | Daily |
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