The staggering cost of rebuilding Ukraine has been estimated at $349 billion, equivalent to €349 billion, according to a recent joint assessment. This figure, revealed in a collaborative report by the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the World Bank, highlights the immense scale of the damage inflicted by the ongoing conflict. As the war continues, this number is expected to rise, painting a stark picture of the financial challenges ahead for Ukraine and its international partners.
This Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) is the first comprehensive evaluation of the war’s widespread impact across twenty sectors since the onset of the Russian invasion. It not only quantifies the devastation but also outlines the substantial financial resources required for a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable recovery and reconstruction. The RDNA serves as a critical roadmap for strategic planning as Ukraine looks towards rebuilding.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, emphasized the EU’s unwavering support, stating, “Ukraine is fighting for democracy and our common values. The EU cannot match the sacrifice Ukraine is enduring, but we are mobilizing all our instruments to address the most immediate needs.” She detailed the EU’s significant financial commitment, noting that “Since the start of Russia’s brutal and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU has mobilised 10 billion euro in financing, humanitarian, emergency and military assistance for Ukraine and another 5 billion euros in financing are in the pipeline.” Von der Leyen affirmed the EU’s long-term partnership, “The EU will walk every step of the way with Ukraine to rebuild a democratic, independent and prosperous country on its path to the EU.”
Echoing the need for international cooperation, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal remarked, “With joint efforts, we have already started reconstruction in the de-occupied Ukrainian territories, but reconstruction requires a comprehensive approach and the mobilization of joint resources of the Ukrainian government and international partners.” He stressed the importance of the RDNA for laying the groundwork for effective financial planning: “The assessment of the destruction and the identification of reconstruction needs creates a solid basis for the national Reconstruction Plan and is a prerequisite for effective financing. After all, only for the first stage, rapid recovery, $17 billion is needed, of which Ukraine needs $3.4 billion already this year,” highlighting the immediate financial requirements.
The RDNA’s scope covers the period from February 24 to June 1, 2022, and during this timeframe, the physical damage alone surpassed $97 billion. The sectors most severely affected include housing, transport, commerce, and industry. Geographically, the most intense destruction was concentrated in the Chernihivska, Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska, Kyivska, and Zaporizka regions. It’s crucial to understand that these figures are preliminary estimates, and the actual damage and subsequent needs are likely to be even greater as the conflict persists and further assessments are conducted.
Anna Bjerde, World Bank Regional Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, underscored the human cost of the conflict, saying, “The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to exact a terrible toll, from significant civilian casualties and the displacement of millions of people to the widespread destruction of homes, businesses, social institutions, and economic activity.” She recognized the difficult balancing act facing the Ukrainian government: “The Government of Ukraine now faces the difficult task of balancing recovery with the country’s immediate needs, including core public services such as health, education and social protection, which are critical to preventing further deterioration in living conditions and poverty in Ukraine. The RDNA will help in identifying priorities for recovery while we continue to support the continuation of essential core services.”
The comprehensive assessment reveals that the total recovery and reconstruction needs across social, productive, and infrastructure sectors amount to $349 billion – a figure exceeding 1.5 times Ukraine’s GDP in 2021. Looking ahead, the RDNA estimates that $105 billion is urgently required over the next 36 months. This funding is crucial for addressing immediate priorities, including the restoration of essential education and healthcare systems, critical infrastructure repairs, and ensuring heating and energy supplies for the upcoming winter. Support for the agricultural sector and the repair of vital transportation routes are also identified as key urgent needs. Furthermore, the safe removal of debris and explosives, including landmines, represents a significant and costly undertaking.
In response to these pressing needs, the Government of Ukraine is actively evaluating specific requirements across different regions to prepare for the winter months. Tailored recovery and reconstruction plans are being developed for each area, guided by the most critical priorities identified.
Both the World Bank and the European Commission have reaffirmed their ongoing commitment to support the Government of Ukraine throughout this challenging period. Recognizing the dynamic nature of the conflict, they acknowledge the necessity for future damage assessments and evaluations of reconstruction and recovery needs in Ukraine. The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has pledged financial support to facilitate these ongoing assessments.
The full Ukraine RDNA report provides a detailed analysis and can be accessed online, offering further insights into the comprehensive needs assessment and recovery roadmap for Ukraine. This collaborative effort underscores the international community’s commitment to assisting Ukraine in its long and challenging path to recovery and reconstruction, addressing the immense financial implications, quantified at $349 billion, for rebuilding a nation amidst conflict.
