Eurozone’s currency has shown resilience, bouncing back from downtrend support and currently testing resistance levels established at the yearly open. As EUR/USD consolidates, traders are eyeing a potential breakout from its January range to dictate the next directional move. Bears should remain cautious as long as the pair holds above the 1.02 threshold. Let’s delve into the critical weekly technical levels for the Euro.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Weekly Analysis
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; Data Source: TradingView
Technical Perspective: In our previous Euro technical analysis, we highlighted EUR/USD’s recovery from yearly trendline support, signaling a potential breakout from the monthly opening range. We advised reducing long positions and tightening protective stops if the pair approached the 1.0573/87 zone. Crucially, we emphasized that for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, pullbacks should hold above 1.0352, and a close above the median line would be needed to propel further gains.
EUR/USD reached a peak of 1.0533 before reversing, effectively retracing its entire 2025 range over the past two weeks. However, last week’s defense of key support now shifts attention back to a potential breakout from the January range to determine the near-term trajectory.
The key support level remains at 1.02, coinciding with the lower parallel and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 advance. A decisive break and weekly close below this level would open the door for a test of significant long-term trendline support at parity. A substantial reaction is anticipated if price reaches this critical juncture. Further support is identified at the 2022 low-week close (LWC) around 9735.
Conversely, initial weekly resistance is observed near the 1.05 handle, followed by a more significant resistance zone at 1.0573/87. This zone is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 decline and the 2023 LWC. A break and weekly close above this threshold would suggest that a more significant bottom has formed, and a larger bullish reversal could be in play. Critical resistance and broader bearish invalidation now stand at 1.0719/77. This region, marked by the November high-week close (HWC), the 52-week moving average, and the February LWC, represents an area of interest for potential topside exhaustion or price inflection if tested.
Bottom Line: EUR/USD is currently range-bound, trading just above downtrend support, with its year-to-date performance virtually flat in 2025. The focus now is squarely on a breakout from the 1.02-1.05 range to provide directional clarity. Bears remain vulnerable as long as price action stays above slope support. From a trading perspective, rallies should be capped by 1.0573 if a downside break is anticipated. Conversely, a close below 1.02 is needed to fuel the next leg lower. For a more detailed examination of near-term technical trading levels, refer to my latest Euro Short-term Outlook.
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— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
