The EUR/USD exchange rate continues its upward trend, prompting discussions about whether it will break free from its established 18-month trading range. For individuals looking to convert currency, such as understanding how much USD they can get for 390 Eur Usd, these market movements are crucial. Currently, the EUR/USD pair has largely fluctuated between 1.05 and 1.11. Market indicators, particularly in the FX options market, suggest a potential shift upwards, at least in the short term.
One notable sign is the one-month risk reversal – the price difference between EUR/USD call and put options. This metric is increasingly favoring euro calls, indicating a stronger demand for options that benefit from a euro appreciation. This trend is occurring alongside rising implied volatility, further supporting the idea of active buying in euro call options.
While the eurozone economic calendar is relatively quiet at the start of the week, attention will turn to Thursday’s PMI releases for a clearer economic picture. However, today’s release of the eurozone monthly current account data for June offers valuable insights. The eurozone is now experiencing a substantial current account surplus, nearing €30 billion per month. This is a significant turnaround from the €30 billion monthly deficits seen in 2022, which heavily contributed to EUR/USD weakness during that period. This positive shift in the current account is now acting as a supportive factor for the euro. Furthermore, the decrease in oil prices, potentially driven by developments in the Middle East, is also beneficial for the EUR/USD pair.
Looking at key technical levels, the 1.1040/1.1050 range is expected to act as intraday support for EUR/USD. On the upside, the 1.1110/1.1140 band represents significant medium-term resistance. A decisive break above this resistance level would signal a major shift in the EUR/USD landscape, potentially impacting conversions for amounts like 390 EUR USD.
In other European market news, the Riksbank in Sweden is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%. Some market participants even speculate about a larger 50 basis point cut. Analysts predict that the Riksbank will likely signal at least two more rate cuts later in the year. This expectation is based on the Swedish economy’s vulnerability to higher interest rates and the fall of inflation expectations below 2%. The anticipated rate cut is not expected to significantly boost EUR/SEK. Instead, the relatively softer interest rate environment in the US could exert downward pressure on EUR/SEK, potentially pushing it towards the 11.30 level.
By Chris Turner
