After a thrilling month of football, Euro 2024 concluded with Spain’s victory over England. While the goals and drama unfolded on the pitch, the underlying data tells an interesting story, particularly when we delve into expected goals (xG). This analysis explores the key xG trends from Euro 2024, examining team performances and goal-scoring patterns throughout the tournament.
Euro 2024: Goals Scored vs Expected Goals
Euro 2024 witnessed a slight dip in the total number of goals compared to the previous edition. While Euro 2020 saw a high-scoring affair with 142 goals, Euro 2024 concluded with 117 goals across the 51 matches. This decrease of 25 goals could be attributed to various factors, ranging from tactical defensive improvements to potentially less clinical finishing.
Interestingly, despite fewer actual goals, Euro 2024 actually generated a higher total expected goals (xG) value than Euro 2020. The tournament in Germany produced a total xG of 133.26, surpassing the 121.58 xG from Euro 2020. This divergence indicates a shift from over-performance in xG at Euro 2020 (more goals scored than expected) to an under-performance at Euro 2024 (fewer goals scored than expected). Specifically, Euro 2020 saw teams outperform their xG by over 20 goals, whereas Euro 2024 saw an underperformance of more than 16 goals.
Last three Euros goal stats
Digging deeper into goal types, Euro 2024 mirrored Euro 2020 in some aspects. Own goals were almost identical (10 in Euro 2024 vs 11 in Euro 2020), and goals from outside the box were exactly the same (19 in both tournaments). The significant difference lies in non-own goals scored from inside the box. Euro 2024 saw only 88 such goals, a notable decrease compared to 112 at Euro 2020 and 89 at Euro 2016. This suggests a potential trend towards more robust defensive setups within the penalty area, leading to fewer high-quality chances converted from close range.
xG Leaders: Spain’s Attacking Prowess
Expected goals (xG) serves as a valuable metric for assessing a team’s attacking threat throughout a tournament. By examining the total xG accumulated by each team, we can gain insights into which sides consistently created goal-scoring opportunities.
Spain emerged as the xG leaders at Euro 2024, amassing an impressive 13.01 xG across their seven matches. This figure was significantly higher than any other team, with Germany coming in second with 9.83 xG, despite playing fewer games. Spain’s attacking dominance was not just theoretical; they translated their xG into actual goals, scoring 15 times, the most by any nation in a single European Championship tournament. This over-performance of their xG suggests both effective chance creation and clinical finishing from the Spanish squad.
Euro 2024 xG scatter plot
The scatter plot visualization clearly illustrates the relationship between games played and total xG. As expected, teams that progressed further in the tournament generally accumulated higher xG values. However, a notable outlier is England. Despite playing the maximum seven games and reaching the final, England’s total xG lagged behind not only Spain but also several teams who were eliminated earlier in the competition.
England’s xG Underperformance: A Tactical Conundrum
England’s journey to the Euro 2024 final, while commendable, was marked by a striking underperformance in expected goals. Gareth Southgate’s team, despite their deep run in the tournament, registered a surprisingly low xG total, falling short of semi-finalists and quarter-finalists, and even teams eliminated in earlier rounds like Austria and Croatia.
Euro 2024 xG stats
Even considering the additional playing time from two extra-time periods and an xG-boosting penalty against the Netherlands, England’s underlying attacking numbers remained underwhelming. Their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes was only better than that of Scotland, Georgia, Serbia, and Romania, highlighting a relative lack of attacking threat compared to other nations in the tournament.
While England’s defensive solidity was instrumental in their progression to the final, their struggles in generating high-quality scoring opportunities, as reflected in their xG data, ultimately hindered their ability to overcome Spain in the final. The Euro 2024 Xg analysis suggests that attacking efficiency and chance creation were key factors in Spain’s triumph, underscoring the increasing importance of expected goals as a metric for evaluating team performance in modern football.
