Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, has voiced strong opposition to Poland joining the Eurozone, suggesting a significantly undervalued euro to zloty exchange rate to support his argument.
Kaczynski claimed that the actual value of the euro should be 2.55 zloty, a figure considerably lower than the official exchange rate of 4.31 zloty observed on a recent Sunday. Speaking at a PiS election rally in Sompolno, Greater Poland, he asserted that adopting the euro would trigger substantial price hikes and diminish the purchasing power of Polish wages. He did not, however, provide any sources or methodology to substantiate his euro to zloty valuation.
He further elaborated on his stance by stating, “The (EU) treaties say we have to do it, but we don’t have a deadline. We can do it in, say, 60 years.” Kaczynski warned that Eurozone entry would cause Polish prices to surge to levels comparable with Germany, a change he deemed “unstoppable.”
Alt text: Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland’s Law and Justice party, addresses supporters at a rally, arguing against Euro adoption and highlighting concerns about the euro to zloty exchange rate.
Kaczynski also posited that the euro could impede Poland’s economic progress. He argued that “If you have a strong currency, you lose (by joining the eurozone) because exports become too expensive.” He acknowledged Poland’s robust export sector, including agricultural products, but suggested that Eurozone membership would only be economically viable if Polish wages were suppressed.
PiS maintains that retaining the zloty is crucial for Polish sovereignty. During a party congress the previous month, Kaczynski stated that the Eurozone primarily benefits Germany and a select group of affluent Western European nations like the Netherlands and Austria.
Public sentiment in Poland appears to lean against euro adoption, with a poll from last month indicating that 66.8% of Poles prefer to keep the zloty. This skepticism is particularly pronounced among voters aligned with right-wing opposition parties, PiS and the Confederation Party.
However, perspectives diverge on the potential impacts of Eurozone membership. A report from the Institute of Reforms, authored by Agnieszka Smoleńska of the Polish Academy of Sciences and Paweł Tokarski of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, suggests that “as a member of the Eurozone, Poland could more effectively participate in shaping the economic system in the EU, taking into account security issues.”
Alt text: Polish and European Union flags wave together, representing the complex relationship between Poland and the EU, particularly regarding economic policies and the euro to zloty exchange rate.
Róża Thun, a Polish MEP from the governing Poland 2050 (Renew) party, dismissed Kaczynski’s statements as recycled rhetoric. Speaking to Euractiv Poland, she stated, “Threatening the Polish people with the euro has no point at the moment, as the vast majority of the EU countries have already joined the eurozone.”
Thun emphasized Poland’s existing trade relationships with Eurozone countries, pointing out that currency exchange processes generate profits for banks while potentially causing losses for businesses and individuals. “It’s hard to plan the future of your business if you don’t know what the exchange rate will be,” she added, highlighting the uncertainties associated with exchange rate fluctuations for businesses operating between the zloty and the euro.
Furthermore, Thun noted that Poland currently does not meet the necessary criteria for Eurozone entry, particularly the convergence criteria. “There is still a long road ahead of us. We will not join the eurozone until we ensure that the zloty’s position is stable enough to prevent major price fluctuations or other major economic problems,” she concluded, indicating that Eurozone accession is not an imminent prospect for Poland and is contingent on significant economic stabilization.
