Extra time in major football tournaments like the Euro Cup and World Cup is always a tense affair. Fans often wonder whether these periods truly decide the game or if it’s just a prelude to the lottery of penalty shootouts. Looking at the data from these prestigious competitions, it’s surprising to see just how often extra time actually delivers a winner.
Analyzing the history of both the World Cup (main tournament) and the European Championship (through the round of 16 in 2016), we can gain valuable insights. These two tournaments stand as the pinnacle of national team football, consistently employing extra time in knockout stages (Copa America largely skipped extra time except for finals). Using Wikipedia as a source for historical match data, a review of 82 matches that went to extra time reveals a compelling statistic: 38 of them, or 46%, were decided during extra time itself.
This nearly even split challenges the common perception that penalty kicks are the inevitable conclusion. However, the “golden goal” era, where the first goal in extra time ended the match, might skew the data. Let’s break down the numbers further for a clearer picture:
- Golden Goal Impact: 5 matches were decided by a golden goal.
- Post-Golden Goal Era: Excluding golden goal games, 33 out of 77 matches (approximately 43%) were still decided in extra time.
- Penalty Shootouts: 38 out of 77 games (roughly 49%) proceeded to penalty kicks after a goalless extra time.
- Penalties After Extra Time Goals: In 4 out of 77 matches (about 5%), both teams scored in extra time, yet the game still went to penalties.
- Replay & Coin Toss Anomalies: There were also unique cases: one replay after a goalless extra time (1968 Euro Final) and even a semifinal decided by a coin toss in the 1968 Euros – an almost unbelievable scenario for such a high-stakes match!
This data highlights a remarkable balance between extra time goals and penalty shootouts in deciding major tournament games. The parity is more pronounced than many might expect.
Furthermore, analyzing goal scoring in extra time provides another interesting perspective. Across these 82 extra time matches, a total of 71 goals were scored, averaging approximately 0.87 goals per extra time period.
- Extrapolating to Regular Time: This extra time goal ratio, when extrapolated to a 90-minute match, would suggest a rate of about 2.59 goals per game.
- Comparison to Regular Match Goals: Interestingly, the past five World Cups have averaged 2.49 goals per match, and the past five Euros (well, 4 full and one partly) averaged 2.40 goals per match.
This comparison indicates that the goal-scoring rate in extra time, when adjusted for duration, isn’t dramatically different from regular match time in these major tournaments.
To ensure these findings aren’t skewed by older data or changing trends, let’s examine more recent tournaments:
- Recent Tournaments (Past Five of Each): In the last five editions of both tournaments, there were 27 goals scored in 40 extra time games, averaging 0.675 goals per extra time, which extrapolates to about 2.025 goals per regular 90-minute game.
While there is a slight decrease in the extrapolated goal rate in recent tournaments, it’s not a drastic drop, especially considering these are predominantly knockout stage matches featuring closely matched teams.
Revisiting the initial question of how often extra time is decisive, in these recent tournaments, 17 out of 40 extra time games (43%) were decided within the extra time period.
While the sample size isn’t massive, and other competitions (domestic cups, continental club tournaments) haven’t been analyzed here, it’s reasonable to estimate that roughly 30-60% of extra time matches are decided within extra time itself. This figure is certainly significant and underscores that extra time is far more than just a pathway to penalties in major tournaments like the Euro Cup and the World Cup. Recent examples, such as the last two World Cup finals both being decided in extra time, further reinforce this point.
