The euro experienced a downturn against the US dollar, briefly touching its lowest point since February 12th, trading around $1.04. This fluctuation reflects investor reactions to key economic announcements and anticipation surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming policy meeting next week. Market sentiment was further influenced by US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, effective Tuesday, alongside additional tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports. Concerns escalated as Trump also indicated plans to impose a 25% tariff on European Union imports, including cars and various other products, casting a shadow over transatlantic trade relations.
Economic data released recently painted a mixed picture across the Eurozone. Germany’s inflation rate remained steady at 2.3% in February, while the core inflation rate showed a decrease to 2.6%, marking a three-year low. France, however, witnessed a more significant drop in inflation, falling unexpectedly to a four-year low of 0.8%. Conversely, inflation rates in Italy and Spain both climbed to 1.7% and 3% respectively, aligning with market forecasts. These varying inflation trends across major European economies add complexity to the ECB’s policy decisions.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to implement a fifth consecutive interest rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. Furthermore, signals for potential future rate reductions are anticipated as the Eurozone grapples with slowing inflation and sluggish economic growth. The market is keenly observing the ECB’s stance and forward guidance to gauge the future trajectory of monetary policy in the region and its impact on the euro to dollar exchange rate.
EUR/USD Performance and Forecast
On Friday, February 28th, the EURUSD exchange rate decreased to 1.0378, representing a 0.20% drop or 0.0021, compared to the previous trading session’s rate of 1.0398.
Historically, the Euro US Dollar exchange rate reached its peak at 1.87 in July 1973. While the euro as a currency was officially introduced on January 1, 1999, historical data modeling allows for estimations extending much further back by considering a weighted average of predecessor currencies. The latest update to the Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate data, forecasts, and historical chart was on March 2, 2025.
Current analysis and global macro models from Trading Economics suggest that the EUR/USD exchange rate is anticipated to trade around 1.03 by the end of the current quarter. Looking ahead to a 12-month horizon, projections indicate a further decrease to 1.02. These forecasts reflect ongoing economic pressures and anticipated monetary policy adjustments influencing the euro in relation to the US dollar.
| Crosses | Price | Day | Year | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0378 | -0.0021 | -0.20% | -3.94% |
| EURGBP | 0.8253 | 0.0001 | 0.01% | -3.55% |
| EURAUD | 1.6717 | 0.0043 | 0.25% | 0.54% |
| EURNZD | 1.8533 | 0.0077 | 0.42% | 4.42% |
| EURJPY | 156.2815 | 0.5015 | 0.32% | -3.56% |
| EURCNY | 7.5694 | -0.0216 | -0.28% | -2.54% |
| EURCHF | 0.9372 | 0.0016 | 0.17% | -1.93% |
| EURCAD | 1.5001 | -0.0010 | -0.06% | 2.26% |
| EURMXN | 21.3261 | 0.0242 | 0.11% | 15.85% |
| EURINR | 90.6642 | -0.1452 | -0.16% | 1.24% |
| EURBRL | 6.1040 | 0.0299 | 0.49% | 13.40% |
| EURKRW | 1,516.9672 | 8.3630 | 0.55% | 4.94% |
| EURIDR | 17,159.5302 | -60.5976 | -0.35% | 1.11% |
| EURPLN | 4.1911 | 0.0271 | 0.65% | -2.78% |
| EURSEK | 11.2122 | 0.0310 | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| EURCZK | 25.0660 | 0.0720 | 0.29% | -1.00% |
| EURHUF | 406.1320 | 5.4815 | 1.37% | 3.68% |
| EURNOK | 11.6815 | -0.0107 | -0.09% | 1.89% |
| EURZAR | 19.3963 | 0.1992 | 1.04% | -6.47% |
| Related | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Area Inflation Rate | 2.50 | 2.40 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| United States Inflation Rate | 3.00 | 2.90 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| Euro Area Interest Rate | 2.90 | 2.90 | percent | Feb 2025 |
| United States Fed Funds Interest Rate | 4.50 | 4.50 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| United States Non Farm Payrolls | 143.00 | 307.00 | Thousand | Jan 2025 |
| United States Unemployment Rate | 4.00 | 4.10 | percent | Jan 2025 |
| Euro Area Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.20 | percent | Dec 2024 |
Understanding the EUR/USD Exchange Rate
The EURUSD spot exchange rate represents the current value of the euro in relation to the US dollar for immediate exchange. While the spot rate is for same-day transactions, the EURUSD forward rate is quoted today for transactions that will be settled on a specific date in the future. This distinction is crucial for businesses and investors managing currency risk over time.
| Actual | Previous | Highest | Lowest | Dates | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.87 | 0.64 | 1957 – 2025 | Daily |
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